What The World's Top Investors Are Buying And Selling, The Sequel (2024)

This is a sequel to my popular 2021 article, "What The World's Top Investors Are Buying and Selling." I am an avid Indiana Jones fan, so thought it apropos to publish this around the same time as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here we revisit insights from seven of the world's greatest investors, taken from a variety of sources. We will look at their performance since my 2021 article and their recent high-conviction investment themes, picks and pans.

The Magnificent Seven Investors

Given how many great investors there are, any short list will necessarily be subjective. To recap from my previous piece, I chose this group based on their track record over a long period and accessibility to their current thinking. Here are my Magnificent Seven:

1. Warren Buffett, Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
2. Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway and Vice Chairman, The Daily Journal
3. Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Chairman, Bridgewater Associates
4. Bill Gross, former Chairman of PIMCO
5. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO, DoubleLine Capital
6. Bill Miller, Chairman, Miller Value Partners
7. Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management

Buffett Rode Chevron (CVX) to Big Gains While Bank of America Suffered

According to the March 2023 13F filing, Berkshire Hathaway's top five holdings account for $251.9B, or 78% of the firm's $325B equity portfolio.

The performance of Berkshire's top equity picks was mixed. Chevron was a big winner while Bank of America was caught in the banking crisis selloff. Note that Chevron didn't make the top five holdings list back then but Buffett had just boosted the position significantly. Buffett picked up $13B of Occidental Petroleum (OXY), about 25% of the company, over the past year. Berkshire purchased over 2.1 million shares from June 26 to June 28, with an approximate value of $122 million.

Source: Seeking Alpha, Hedgefollow.com

On average, Berkshire's top picks did well during a rough market that included a drop in the S&P 500 of 25% from December 2021 until late September 2022. The S&P 500 declined 7% but an equal weight position in Buffett's top six gained 5%.

Now Buffett Says Cash and the Dollar Are OK and the Banking System is Safe

At the May 2023 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett and Munger shared some interesting things, among them:

Cash is not trash. Berkshire is sitting on its largest cash pile ever with more than $100B.

The banking system is safe. Buffett said, "I've got my own personal money, and I'm probably above the FDIC limit, and I've got it with a local bank and I don't worry about it in the least." However, stockholders may not be safe:

The incentives in bank regulation are so messed up and so many people have an interest in having them messed up - it's totally crazy, so we are very cautious in a situation like that about ownership."

Dumb things create opportunities. Consistent with the firm's large cash hoard, Buffett anticipates opportunities ahead. There were hints about the commercial real estate market opportunities ahead.

The dollar is ok - for now. There is no real competition for the dollar. However, if we continue to see high inflation, confidence in the dollar may erode. This could lead to a new world order in currencies.

A.I. will change the world. Buffett expects "AI will change everything in the world," but doesn't think it will trump human intelligence.

Charlie Munger's Top Picks and Pans All Declined

Buffett's running mate Munger serves as Vice Chair of Berkshire Hathaway and Chairman of the Daily Journal. Back in 2021 he liked Alibaba (BABA), Costco (COST), Zoom (ZM), and Micron Technology (MU). Alibaba was one of the Daily Journal's top holdings at $37.4M.

At the 2021 Daily Journal shareholder meeting, when asked which was priced crazier, bitcoin or Tesla (TSLA), Munger quipped, ""I can't decide the order of precedency between a louse and a flea." Good call. Since that time Tesla is down 23% and bitcoin down 44%.

Munger said markets are "crazier than the dot-com boom. He said many U.S. companies were trading at 35 times earnings, with valuations the most extreme he'd seen in recent history. This proved prescient given the ensuing 2022 bear market. He also thought Treasuries were a bad investment. This was correct. Since then the iShares 7-10 year Treasury ETF is down 15%.

The table shows all Munger's top picks declined. His picks averaged a price decline of 27%. Yet his pans declined even less, by 22% on average.

Munger Continues to Hold Blue Chips and Is Skeptical of AI

At the May 2023 Berkshire shareholder meeting Munger said:

We are going to see a lot more robotics in the world. I'm personally skeptical of some of the hype in AI. I think old fashioned intelligence works pretty well."

According to the SEC filing in April 2023, The Daily Journal's portfolio held Bank of America ($66M), Wells Fargo ($60M), Alibaba ($31M) and US Bancorp ($5M). Munger's personal portfolio includes Costco, Berkshire Hathaway, and the Daily Journal.

Ray Dalio Made Prescient Calls

I am an avid follower of Dalio. He is founder of arguably the world's most successful hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates.

Since he is a macro thinker, he avoids mention of specific investments, but does comment on asset classes. Therefore it isn't easy to track performance. Dalio reserves that information for Bridgewater's institutional and high net worth individual investors.

Nonetheless, the table below shows some of the picks and pans that Dalio was clear about in his public commentaries that I researched.

He made good calls on commodities, gold, and Treasuries. Dalio said "cash is trash" but has since softened his view. Dalio said parallels between the 1940's and today suggest higher than historical inflation. Inflation has moderated but is still running about 4%, above the long-term average and the Fed's target.

Dalio called the U.S. equity market frothy, but not yet in a bubble. This proved correct so far with the market dropping substantially then recovering. He recommended an all-weather portfolio. I subscribe to this view and wrote about this in my article series on Seeking Alpha.

Dalio was uncertain about the future of bitcoin, which is down 44% since the 2021 article. Bridgewater was long commodities. A representative commodity futures equity ETF (DBC) is up 14% and my preferred vehicle, a commodity equity fund (GUNR), was up 15% last year.

Dalio Likes Blue Chips and Says the Banking Crisis is Indicative of a Classic Bubble Bursting

According to hedgefollow.com, the most recent Bridgewater 13F filing shows a highly diversified portfolio. Top holdings are:

1. iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG): 5.3% of the portfolio, $872M
2. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): 4.6%, $872M
3. Procter & Gamble (PG): 4.5%, $752M
4. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 3.4%, $556M
5. PepsiCo (PEP): 3.1%, $511M
6. Coca-Cola (KO): 3.1%, $505M

I added Coca-Cola because it's interesting that the position is almost as large as PepsiCo. Buffett made it one of his top picks too and he puts his mouth where his money is - he is often seen drinking the product.

Dalio often posts on LinkedIn and shared his thoughts on the banking crisis:

I think that it is a very classic event in the very classic bubble-bursting part of the short-term debt cycle (which lasts about seven years, give or take about three) in which the tight money to curtail credit growth and inflation leads to a self-reinforcing debt-credit contraction that takes place via a domino-falling-like contagion process that continues until central banks create easy money that negates the debt-credit contraction, thus producing more new credit and debt, which creates the seeds for the next big debt problem until these short-term cycles build up the debt assets and liabilities to the point that they are unsustainable and the whole thing collapses in a debt restructuring and debt monetization (which typically happens about once every 75 years, give or take about 25 years)."

For several years Dalio has been warning about the perils of fiscal and monetary policy. He foresees a financial crisis and a new world order on the horizon. You can read his outstanding Changing World Order LinkedIn series for all the details.

Dalio shared his latest thoughts in a recent public interview with Bloomberg and another with Forbes. He expects continuing stagflation. He believes large government debt obligations and a supply-demand imbalance will exert continued upward pressure on interest rates. He is looking for a real rate of about 1% with sticky inflation of 3-4%.

He says U.S. Treasury bonds are "very risky." The Treasury plans to issue another $1.3 trillion in debt by year end. Many foreign entities have curtailed their interest in the securities, in part due to the "financial weaponization" effect. The banks are sitting on too many Treasuries at a loss and are not eager to absorb much of the supply either. This creates a significant supply-demand imbalance. He likes gold as an insurance policy and suggests a "normal" portfolio allocation of 10-15%. He continues to recommend a well-diversified all-weather portfolio.

On the social and geopolitical fronts, Dalio called out the continuing U.S. political division. Not long ago, he cited the potential for some form of civil war, perhaps triggered by the next Presidential election results.

Dalio is excited about AI as a "thought partner" and called it "bigger than the internet revolution." He believes we are entering a "time warp" and says we will see a "completely different world in 5-10 years."

Bill Gross Shared Little, But Was Highly Successful

"Central bankers create money out of thin air, move interest rates up and down pretending to be prescient, yet fail to regulate the industry they oversee."

Bill Gross is the original "Bond King" and former head of PIMCO. He has been retired for a few years and is off most investors' radar. However as noted below, we can still glean his thoughts from his website.

In my 2021 article I quoted Gross: "bonds are trash and you'd be better off with alternatives like NUAN (a Microsoft acquisition likely to return 8% annualized before year end) or XLRN (a Merck acquisition likely to do the same)." Since those stocks stopped trading, we can't compare their performance over the full period considered. However, his other picks and pans all proved highly successful as indicated below.

Gross is Concerned About Monetary and Fiscal Policy, and Likes Select Banks

Gross' insightful missive encapsulates his latest thinking. His "Wall Street Playbill" begins by flogging the "cast of characters," including central bankers, bankers, investment bankers, and managers of hedge, investment, mutual, money market and index funds. He empathizes with the average investor and is thankful for his time working at PIMCO.

He also echoes Dalio regarding monetary and fiscal stimulus, and their consequences:

Our recent global "banking crisis" is but one of an increasingly frequent series of events such as the Great Recession, the dot-com crisis, and the stock market crash of 1987 that can be traced to too much money creation, too radical financial innovation (portfolio insurance in 1987) and too many fiscal deficit bailouts.

See Also

Stocks Most Bought by Hedge Funds in Q4 2022 | RoboMarkets Blog

Gross says such bailouts not only necessitate, but "perpetuate and accelerate such actions." He sees it as "extremely difficult" to return to the Fed's historic 2% inflation target. As a result, investors should invest with expectations of 3%+ annual inflation and own TIPS rather than nominal Treasuries. They should own companies with the capacity to raise prices and maintain margins in an inflationary environment.

He'd like to start a bank since it's a "license to make money." Now with many regional banks down 30-40%, it's possible to own them on the cheap via the public market. He holds WAL, KRE (an ETF), SNV and PACW. But he also warned (for legal purposes) these aren't recommendations.

Jeffrey Gundlach Made Some Good Bearish Calls

The table below shows calls Gundlach made in December 2021 and how they've fared.

Gundlach was correctly bearish about Treasuries and bitcoin. He said U.S. value stocks were cheap relative to growth, given relative P/E ratios. This proved correct as value stocks dropped about 4% while the S&P declined 7%. Adding generous dividend yields, value did even better - approximately breaking even.

His highest conviction idea was that the dollar will head lower over the longer-term. Since December 2021 the dollar is up about 6%. He said he would be a strong advocate of emerging market equities when the dollar moves to the downside. Since that didn't happen, his call on emerging markets is yet to trigger.

Now Gundlach Sees a Weak Economy, Likes Bonds and Is Pessimistic About Stocks

After the recent Fed meeting Gundlach weighed in on CNBC. He thinks the Fed has a bad record forecasting the Fed funds rate. Two years ago their forecast was 50-75 basis points for year-end 2023. Gundlach says "they missed it by about 450 basis points."

He also thinks the economy is much weaker than the Fed and many economists believe. Economic indicators that are "deeply in recession territory," including hours worked, leading economic indicators, and a strongly inverted yield curve support his view. He thinks the Fed is making the same mistake they made a year and a half ago, "but in reverse."

He is looking for year-end CPI in "the low 3's," which would result in a very restrictive real rate of about 200 basis points if the Fed follows through on two more rate hikes. As a result, he doesn't see the Fed boosting rates.

Gundlach is bearish on U.S. equities:

You've got the S&P 7 which is the mania craze. If you say AI, your stock goes up 20%. The stock market frankly is exhibiting signs of a mania. And it leads to a valuation which is pretty scary with an inverted yield curve with the Fed saying they're going to raise interest rates…The S&P 500 has a PE of 19 based on forward earnings and if the economy weakens or goes into recession, those forward earnings are greatly exaggerated."

He says he hasn't changed his game plan for about a year and a half and likes:

• Systematic upgrading (of quality) in fixed income portfolios
• A barbell portfolio - primarily in bonds - with 20% stocks, 60% bonds and 20% real assets
• Fixed income is very cheap with 5% yields on very high grade bonds with no default risk
• Actively managed fixed income portfolio that can earn 8-10% via "the middle part of the capital structure" (presumably offered by his firm, Double Line, although Gundlach doesn't pitch anything specific).

Bill Miller's "Ferrari" Pick and Other Hot Stocks Tanked

Miller has always advocated a buy and hold strategy. In late 2021 he thought we were still in a bull market and suggested investors stay the course. This came just before the onset of the vicious 2022 bear market. He said gold was a "horse and buggy, and bitcoin a Ferrari."

Unfortunately, investors following Miller would have been very well off had they shorted his favorite stocks. On average, they lost a whopping 50% while the S&P lost 7% during the period.

Miller's performance reminds active investors how humbling stock picking can be - even for investing legends. In fairness, an 18 month period for a subset of a portfolio doesn't paint a fair picture. Miller can fall back on his record run of beating the S&P 500 for 15 years in a row. And from 2009-2019 he outperformed the market with annualized returns of about 20%.

Miller Sticks to His Blue Chip Approach

According to the latest 13F report in March 2023 Miller Value Partners' top five holdings were:

• OneMain Holdings (OMF) $77M
• Expedia Group (EXPE) $75M
• Amazon (AMZN) ($71M)
• Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) $64M
• Alphabet (GOOGL) $62M

Jim Rogers Was Right on Every Major Call

Rogers has stayed true to form for quite some time. In his public interviews, he will discuss his macro views but says little about specific investment picks. In 2021 he railed about government spending, debt accumulation and the behavior of what he terms "reckless central banks."

The table below shows Rogers' high conviction picks and pans delivered a powerful performance over the past 18 months. His picks gained 7% while his pans declined 31%. His performance was arguably the best among the legends during this period.

Rogers correctly dissed bitcoin, SPACs and NFTs. It may feel like a distant memory, but SPACs were popular at the time with 613 SPAC IPOs in 2021. However issuance fizzled to only 86 in 2022 and a dismal 16 so far in 2023, according to spacinsider.com. The S&P US SPAC index declined 18% in 2022. In addition to regulatory and economic pressures, there have been many civil litigations against SPACs.

Rogers Still Expects the Worst Bear Market of His Lifetime and Likes Agriculture

In a spring 2023 Kitco interview Rogers shared his views. They were consistent with what he has said for the past several years:

Stay with what you know. Don't listen to other people. Figure out what you know a lot about and put your money there."

He says, "you need to figure out how the world is changing and adapt." Rogers says the U.S. has become the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world and "the people in Washington are forcing people away from the dollar."

Rogers says most stocks around the world have been very strong for a long time. He thinks we are getting much closer to the end of the run and that "probably next year will be a bad year, maybe even sooner."

Rogers says Uzbekistan "has staggering resources and is probably the best place to invest in Asian emerging markets." When asked what is hated and cheap (which is what he likes to own), he said agriculture is the only sector that comes to mind. One proxy for ag investing (not cited by Rogers) is the Invesco DB Ag fund (DBA), a futures ETF. It gained 11% since late 2021. However, as I describe in my all-weather portfolio series, I prefer to own a mix of diversified commodity equities (GUNR) and Farmland (FPI). Another commodity equity ETF that is interesting to me is MOO. I may cover this in a future article.

The Macro Thinkers Share Some Common Views

The macro thinkers, Dalio, Gundlach, Gross and Rogers, share some common views:

• U.S. debt resulting from unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy presents historic levels of financial market and economic risk.
• Higher inflation will be persistent, perhaps longer than the Fed and most economists think.
• Exercise caution, if not strong bearishness, regarding U.S. equity investments.
• Own real assets including gold, silver, and other commodities.
• There are pockets of unique opportunities, including select emerging markets.
• Diversify across asset classes, geographies, and currencies.

The Stock Picking Gurus Buy Solid Businesses and Hold Them

Buffett, Munger, and Miller continue to focus on bottoms-up stock picking. They buy and hold without concern for market direction. But investors should note that many of the high conviction picks of the gurus had middling or very poor performance during the recent bear market. Traders beware.

Limitations

We should be hesitant to judge the performance of the gurus based on their top picks and pans. They are based on their public comments and don't reflect a complete view of how they are investing. They are merely a sampling of their thinking. And we are viewing a snapshot of a relatively short 18 month period.

My Approach

I hesitated to even put my thoughts in the same space as these legends. Their work is truly magnificent and humbling for us amateur investors. However I'll share a few thoughts for those who don't follow me or may want to know how to operationalize some of the wisdom here. For more details, you may wish to read some of my other SA articles.

I utilize a macro, passive, index fund-based approach, much like Dalio's all-weather approach. My Contrarian All-Weather Portfolio employs a mix of 15% equities, 60% fixed income and 25% precious metals and commodity equities. It has 25 year annual returns of about 6%, with a maximum annual drawdown of 5% and currently yields about 4%.

In the spirit of full disclosure: the Contrarian All-Weather Portfolio matched the S&P 500's decline of 7% during the period considered here. In 2022, it helped protect investors with a 6% decline versus a drop of 18% for the S&P 500 and 15% for 7-10 year Treasuries (IEF).

Please note this portfolio is designed for conservative and long-term oriented investors, such as those near or in retirement. Yet, the all-weather approach can still be utilized with different weightings of risk assets for investors with varying risk-reward preferences. I've written several articles on SA that describe the portfolio's rationale, approach, and holdings. My most recent update shows how it performed during the onset of the banking crisis.

Conclusion

The investing legends had a mixed track record during the period considered. Big winners were Buffett, Dalio, Gundlach, Gross and Rogers, while Munger and Miller had a rough patch. Again, such short term performance should be viewed in proper context. Investing is a humbling activity and one that requires extreme patience, perspective and perseverance.

Tactical investors and those who buy individual stocks can benefit from studying the Magnificent Seven's views on current markets and their high conviction stock picks. Even the world's most successful investors will make wrong calls. This further demonstrates how difficult it is for individual investors to beat the market.

Mere mortals such as me adopt an all-weather portfolio. I believe such an approach, followed patiently over many market cycles, is likely to meet my investing goals.

I look forward to your comments.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

I am an investor, entrepreneur and consultant with over 35 years of investment experience. I employ a macro-style, passive, index-based all-weather investment approach. I emphasize capital preservation, with a value orientation and contrarian bent. I manage and advise on family portfolios collectively valued in the eight-figure range. Background includes a B.S. Industrial Engineering and MBA in investments from University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, plus 11,000+ hours of investment management and research. Accomplished entrepreneur, consultant and business owner. My passion is to help individuals improve their financial literacy and investing skills. Besides writing for SeekingAlpha and Advisor Perspectives, I've presented at universities, churches and other community organizations.